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Analyzing Lufthansa's Seasonal Trade Pattern: Insights and Performance

Updated: Jun 15



In this analysis, we delve into the seasonal trade pattern of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (ISIN: DE0008232125) from October 9th to December 28th.



This period encompasses significant seasonal shifts and market activities that potentially influence the stock's performance.


By examining data spanning from December 17, 1996, to June 14, 2024, we aim to uncover the trends and key performance indicators (KPIs) that have characterized Lufthansa's stock movement during this timeframe.


Deutsche Lufthansa AG operates as an aviation company worldwide. It operates in three segments: Passenger Airlines; Logistics; and Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul Services (MRO). The Passenger Airlines segment offers products and services to passengers of Lufthansa Airlines, SWISS, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, and Eurowings. Its Logistics segment offers airfreight container management, urgent shipments, and customs clearance services; and e-commerce solutions. The MRO segment provides maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for civil commercial aircraft serving original equipment manufacturers, aircraft leasing companies, operators of VIP jets, government, armed forces, and airlines. The company also offers corporate payment and billing services; vocational and professional training for cockpit and cabin crew; and IT solutions. As of December 31, 2023, it had a fleet of 721 aircraft. Deutsche Lufthansa AG was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Cologne, Germany.


 

Pattern Summary

The seasonal trade pattern for Lufthansa during the specified period reveals the following key performance indicators:



Maximum Pattern Growth: The highest return for this pattern was recorded at 37.00%, indicating substantial growth in the best-performing year.


Maximum Pattern Drawdown: The largest drawdown during this timeframe was -12.00%, marking the most significant loss in the worst-performing year.


Average Pattern Return: The average return for this pattern is 13.68%, suggesting a positive performance over the long term.


Cumulative Pattern Return: The cumulative return for this pattern stands at an impressive 381.83%, highlighting significant overall gains across the analyzed years.




Positive Returns: There were 24 instances of positive returns during this pattern.


Negative Returns: Conversely, there were only 4 instances of negative returns.


Win Rate: The win rate for this pattern is 85.71%, indicating that the majority of these patterns resulted in positive returns.


 

To understand why Lufthansa's stock shows a strong performance during this period, we can consider several factors:


Seasonal Travel Surge: The period from October to December includes significant travel seasons, such as autumn holidays and the beginning of the Christmas travel rush. Increased passenger traffic can positively impact airline revenues and investor sentiment.


Corporate and Holiday Bookings: Business travel tends to ramp up after the summer months, contributing to higher load factors and better financial performance for airlines.


Earnings Releases: This period often coincides with the release of Q3 earnings reports. Positive financial results or forward-looking statements from the company can boost stock prices.


Market Trends: Broader market trends, including end-of-year rallies, can also influence stock performance positively.


Operational Efficiencies: Lufthansa's diversified operations across passenger airlines, logistics, and MRO services allow the company to capitalize on increased demand and operational efficiencies during peak travel seasons.


The analysis of Lufthansa's seasonal trade pattern from October to December demonstrates a consistent and robust performance, underpinned by strategic market positioning and favorable seasonal factors. Investors may find this pattern indicative of potential opportunities, although it is essential to consider broader market conditions and company-specific developments.


 

Past performance and historical seasonal trends do not guarantee future outcomes, especially regarding market trends. Deep Alpha Research UG (haftungsbeschränkt) does not endorse any specific financial instruments, securities groups, industry sectors, analysis periods, or strategies, nor does it offer consultancy, brokerage, or asset management services. Deep Alpha Research UG (haftungsbeschränkt) explicitly disclaims any explicit or implied trading recommendations, including any assurances of profit or protection against losses. While every effort is made to interpret terms broadly in case of ambiguity, users bear sole responsibility for their trading strategies and outcomes. Indicators, strategies, and functions provided may contain errors leading to unexpected results or losses. Deep Alpha Research UG (haftungsbeschränkt) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the information provided. Users must comply with applicable capital market regulations. All content and images are copyright protected, requiring prior written consent for use beyond copyright law. Futures and forex trading carry significant risks and may result in the loss of invested capital. Only risk capital should be used, and trading should only be considered by those with sufficient risk tolerance. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and testimonials do not assure similar outcomes for other clients.

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